241, 6/5/2012, p. 11-12 http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP241.pdf, accessed 7/20/2013. “Philippines Election Reflects Chinese Inroads Into United States ‘Backyard.’” World Politics Review, May 5, 2010.http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5498/philippines-election-reflects-chinas-inroads-into-u-s-backyard. [64] Rolando Dy, “Philippine Agri-Food Trade: Smuggling or Under-reporting?,” accessed 7/22/2013. According to Baviera, “ICAPP gave it [China] an opportunity to change the image of the CCP held by other political parties in the region, as one that was ‘peaceful, open, enlightened and progressive’.”[41]  Because of this, de Venecia was able to build powerful connections in China, making himself “the gatekeeper for major Chinese investment projects in the Philippines.” He consequently became “the staunchest defender of JMSU.”[42], Indeed, as recently as July 2013 the press quoted Mr. de Venecia as supporting a turn back to China. Advertisement.

Despite the fact that the Constitution allows for the Philippines to approve foreign bases by vote of the Senate, the press and many politicians treat the provision as if it’s an immutable prohibition on foreign bases. “Cebuano accuses Lucio Tan of failing to pay billions in taxes, files BIR case.” Sun Star. “China ‘Reveals Army Structure’ in Defence White Paper.” April 4, 2013.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-22163599. Accessed August 8, 2013. Counter-terrorism cooperation between the Philippines and the United States make this safe haven marginally more difficult for the terrorists. Chinese influences on Filipino life were mainly economic. “United States Negotiates Expanded Military Role in Philippines.” New York Times, July 12, 2013.http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/13/world/asia/us-negotiates-expanded-military-role-in-philippines.html?ref=philippines&_r=0.

A South China Sea Code of Conduct Eludes Diplomatic Efforts,” Center for New American Security, Washington, D.C., March 2013. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Bulletin_Storey_Slipping_Away_0.pdf, ,accessed 16 July 2013; Mohan Malik, “Historical Fiction: China’s South China Sea Claims,” World Affairs, May/June 2013, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/historical-fiction-china%E2%80%99s-south-china-sea-claims, accessed 7/31/2013. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1967.

ABS-CBN News. The United States duly ended operations at five military bases, including Clark Air Force Base in 1991. 0000056181 00000 n “World Bank: Money Laundering Criminals | Interview with Whistleblower Karen Hudes.” June 21, 2013.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7E9SUwlooE.

100-102. [81]  In addition, the Philippine government wanted 60% of Tan’s holdings in companies that he held in trust for former President Marcos, which the government believed Marcos purchased with government funds. Harvard Journal of Asiatic Studies In 1999, United States defense officials made it clear that there was no guarantee of United States support in case of a Philippines-China conflict over the South China Sea. In turn, the elite provides exports to the foreign military power, or under the relatively new free trade regime, to the open market. In the midst of the Scarborough Shoal standoff, Senator Trillanes asked President Aquino to allow him to engage in “back door” diplomacy with China.



If recent history is any guide, China excels at leveraging that influence by exploiting corruptible Philippine officials, and through veiled economic threats against the Philippine Government. In base negotiations, the United States at the very least should proactively advocate: 1) job opportunities inside US bases to be made available to Filipinos, 2) Philippine regulatory oversight of off-base entertainment to combat prostitution and drug-peddling, 3) open community town-halls and events on a regular basis to improve community relations, 4) a promise of judicious litigation of legal violations committed by United States troops, and 5) provision of medical and educational programs in communities near bases. [36]  As recently as July and August 2013, Chinese officials used the JMSU agreement against the Philippines to buttress their South China Sea claims in the press and international fora. In his 2012 Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth (SALN), Senator Estrada stated that P119.3 million of his P193.56-million total net worth is placed in various investments – S-E-N-J-I Corp., Lucky J4J Resto Inc., HK Choi Inc., and Choi Palace Inc.[90]. [31] http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5498/philippines-election-reflects-chinas-inroads-into-u-s-backyard, accessed 7/18/2013. If China is successful in one location, it will seek the same through gradual encroachment and normalization in other locations. They agreed to increase bilateral trade to $60 billion by 2016. 1, January-March, 1999,  http://pcij.org/imag/PublicEye/lucio.html, accessed 08/09/13. Expect increasingly conflictual relations between the Philippines and China, until the South China Sea dispute is settled, either by force or through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). [54]Manny Mogato, “Former Philippine president Estrada pardoned,” Reuters, October 25, 2007, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2007/10/25/uk-philippines-estrada-idUKMNB0007120071025, accessed 08/09/13. 0000065379 00000 n Accessed July 18, 2013. Ferriols, Des.“FM, Erap make it to list of world’s most corrupt.” Asian Journal, March 26, 2004.http://asianjournalusa.com/fm-erap-make-it-to-list-of-worlds-most-corrupt-p836-67.htm. Control over lucrative shipping, fishing, and energy fields will result.

The Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry is an active player in the Philippine political scene. 0000046665 00000 n 0000058506 00000 n [24]Thomas Lum, “The Republic of the Philippines and U.S. Interests,”Congressional Research Service, Washington, D.C., April 5, 2012,  http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33233.pdf,  accessed 16 July 2013. Some quarters believe that the answer is in the affirmative and that President Aquino who exercises legislative powers before the actual convening of the Congress might as well consider the treaty as fully ratified. Influence in Asia,” Asian Outlook, no. . Figure 1: China and Philippines: Military Expenditure and Energy Use, 1989-2011. Aurelia Calica, “Phl, China drop North Rail,” Philippine Star, 09/26/2012, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2012/09/26/852997/phl-china-drop-north-rail, accessed 7/21/2013. 241, 6/5/2012, p. 10, http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP241.pdf, accessed 7/20/2013.

[6] Half-measures such as bilateral cooperation with the United States on terrorism and training, or temporary refueling rights for United States and Japanese naval vessels, will be insufficient to guarantee United States support of the Philippines in case of conflict with China, and therefore insufficient to deter China from progressive encroachments in the South and East China Seas. Claims by China to the South China Sea in 1992, and the occupation of Mischief Reef in 1995, cooled the relationship and caused the Philippines to try a middle path between China and the United States. [27] Juan Ponce Enrile, “Speech Concerning the VFA,” Senate Committee on National Defense and Security, 1/24/2002. 4, Oct.-Dec. 1990, pp. Expect closer relations of the United States to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Asean in 2014 and 2015.

The United States may need to make concessions here, including a willingness to negotiate on issues of nuclear weapon access, base contract cancellation procedures, and to what extent United States personnel should face Philippine  justice, especially for proven felonies. 0000052158 00000 n Asiatic Studies is a semi-annual publication, appearing in June and December The two countries increased high-level visits in the early 1990s. [5]“Philippines ‘to take South China Sea row to court,’” BBC News Asia, 01/22/2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21137144, accessed 7/23/2013. <<06884a91df36e543a42137beb0cd02b9>]>> . “Philippine Agri-Food Trade: Smuggling or Under-reporting?” Business Inquirer, May 13, 2013.http://business.inquirer.net/121501/philippine-agri-food-trade-smuggling-or-under-reporting. [20] Given that the Philippines has very low foreign direct investment (FDI) compared to its neighbors in South East Asia, it cannot support current defense spending, much less a future defense architecture responsive to major security challenges in the region such as the South China Sea dispute. 0000035897 00000 n But in a quiet and huge win for China, the Philippines smoothed over Chinese encroachments one year after the 1995 Mischief Reef incident. “China, the Philippines, and U.S. [85] Karl John Reyes, “Chinese military intel opened doors for Trillanes – JPE,” InterAksyon.com, September 24, 2012,  http://www.interaksyon.com/article/43923/chinese-military-intel-opened-doors-for-trillanes—jpe, accessed 09/15/13. Accessed July 20, 2013. 0000002226 00000 n The Philippines no longer has the security guarantee of a United States base on its territory, making risk from a low-probability but catastrophic war with China too costly in expectation. Romero, Alexis. Chinese exports to the Philippines are negligible compared to China’s overall exports, but the Chinese market is a huge percentage of Philippine exports. 59 67 [93]  Aquino also added that those who paid income taxes did not pay the full amount. [75] China will likewise want to avoid any backlash against Chinese-Filipinos due to China’s current foreign influence campaigns. 0000027600 00000 n [38], The change of administration from President Arroyo to President Benigno Aquino III in 2010 unearthed major corruption used by China and explained President Arroyo’s surprising pro-China policies. [67] Other Philippine cities with major concentrations of interlinked companies doing business with China include Binondo, Tondo, Pasig, and Makati.

Chinese Political Influence in the Philippines. However, at the same time, cultural influences were inevitable. CIA World Factbook. Accessed August 17, 2013. Enrile, Juan Ponce. Accessed July 7, 2013. Accessed July 26, 2013. Accessed July 18, 2013. “Graft court admits evidence vs Tan in ill-gotten wealth case.” August 23, 2010.  http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/199226/economy/graft-court-admits-evidence-vs-tan-in-ill-gotten-wealth-case. http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/07/12/13/henry-sys-sons-teaming-sm-prime, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2012/09/26/852997/phl-china-drop-north-rail. [96] Camille Diola, “Global Survey: 2 in 5 Filipinos see China as an ‘enemy,’” Philippine Star, 07/19/2013, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/07/19/988411/global-survey-2-5-filipinos-see-china-enemy, accessed 7/19/2013. January 21, 2013.http://www.senate.gov.ph/press_release/2013/0121_prib1.asp. [10] United States Energy Information Administration, “International Energy Statistics,”   http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6, accessed 7 July 2013.

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